Baffert’s Triple Crown posse, Tiz the Law, and a potential fall Preakness
After Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert scored a personal double during last Saturday’s two-division Arkansas Derby, it became evident that he really is sitting on a pair of incredible colts, either of whom could arguably win this year’s Triple Crown (that is, if there is a Triple Crown—more on that later).
But truth be told, the Baffert barn is more than three-year-old phenoms Charlatan and Nadal. He also conditions another one-name wonder, who is undefeated following three starts to date. Authentic—son of 2019 North American leading sire, Into Mischief—rounds out a trifecta of runners whom Baffert himself has admitted he’s still not sure who reigns supreme among them.
And who could blame his reticence to anoint his favorite, really?
But that won’t stop any analysis of the trio, for although each has dominated and impressed, there are subtleties which shouldn’t be overlooked.
Let’s begin with Authentic. He’s three-for-three while stretching out each time since his 5 1/2 furlong maiden score at DelMar late in his 2yo campaign. He won at a mile in the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita just after the New Year and then advanced off a late run from hard-charging Honor A.P., at a mile and a 1/16th, in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 7. He’s being pointed to the G1 Santa Anita Derby on June 6, according to Jonathan Lintner of Horse Racing Nation (Santa Anita plans to resume racing on May 15, when the safer-at-home order expires in Los Angeles County).
What’s not quite authentic about Authentic, however, is the competition he’s been vanquishing. Make no mistake, graded stakes fields are plenty formidable by definition. But short fields, such as the five to six other competitors he’s faced in Arcadia this year, don’t exactly stoke the kind of confidence one wants to see when handicapping a youngster’s ability to match up against a paddock replete with class. Give me a nine- to ten-horse field for the SA Derby—with at least three other legitimate threats—and, if he wins, I’m willing to reevaluate whether he’s Baffert’s ‘A’ horse.
Which leads us to Charlatan. This son of Speightstown, out of a Quiet American mare, has also won three races over increased distances since he broke his maiden less than two months ago. And frankly, he is the real deal. His stride is effortless and his cruising speed is hypnotic, which makes any attempt at overtaking him when he’s on the lead a herculean task. But can he prevail from off the pace? It’s likely, but we just don’t know yet. A test never taken is a test unmastered.
And that opens the discussion to Baffert’s surest bet — Nadal. A son of Blame, this colt has raced to victory four times since his maiden trip on January 19th of this year. And he’s done it overcoming a host of factors. For instance, in his Grade 2 Rebel Stakes win, he managed a (sealed) off-track and rebuffed challenges throughout the 1 1/16-mile route, ending with a tremendous burst during a panicked stretch-drive crop-ride from his jockey, Joel Rosario. Without question, the most impressive part of that win was how he maintained a length-or-so lead at the top of the lane with just a hand-ride, as several comers made their advances.
Then—during last Saturday’s AK Derby finale—he impressively rated the leader, Wells Bayou, by staying at his hip until about 3/8 of a mile remaining in the race. That’s when he drove up beside him and used his perfect two-path position to distance himself from the field in the shadowy Oaklawn stretch.
But make no mistake. Nadal very much belongs in the spotlight for Bob Baffert’s barn.
No posse is untouchable however. And that’s especially true as it pertains to the law.
Tiz the Law, Sackatoga Stable’s three-year-old colt trained by Barclay Tagg, cannot boast an unblemished record following five lifetime starts.
However, what he can claim is a wide trip-win on the largest of ovals at Belmont Park in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes last October, when he was held back for much of the mile route before unleashing a closing kick which bested formidable two-year-old challengers, Green Light Go and Gozilla. And all of that while his head was cocked to the grandstand at Big Sandy!
Since closing his 2yo campaign with a third place finish in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs on November 30, Tiz the Law has been nothing short of spectacular in a pair of graded stakes wins at Gulfstream Park.
He first scored a Grade 3 triumph in the Holy Bull on Super Bowl weekend, impressing after he was hastily steadied on the backstretch to accommodate a compact charge of runners.
Eight weeks later, with the COVID-19 pandemic relegating the Grade 1 Florida Derby to be raced absent of on-site spectators, Tiz the Law’s performance was as captivating as an arrest caught on dashcam—again, sitting four-wide until well into the far turn, before setting down a dominant, yet carefree, stretch run.
He may lack the physical attributes of Baffert’s best colts in the division but, if we’re talking about tested runners who’ve shown both the heart and skill to prevail, it’s time to “Respect the Law,” as Gulfstream’s colorful track announcer. Pete Aiello, quipped as he broke the Florida Derby wire.
As the horse racing world awaits its spectators to return, a handful of U. S. tracks have continued to race during the pandemic, offering up rather competitive cards for a shut-in betting public while using only essential personnel at the tracks themselves.
And still, even this industry has been placed into a bit of a holding pattern.
The 146th Kentucky Derby won’t be run until Labor Day Saturday this year and it’s still too soon to know whether this Run for the Roses will be held without 150,000-plus, best-dressed patrons.
Pimlico Race Course, home to the Preakness Stakes, in Baltimore, MD | © Andrew Sgroi. All Rights Reserved
And just this week, it’s been reported that the 145th Preakness Stakes from Baltimore’s racing relic, Pimlico, is in line for the first Saturday in October. That’s at least based on knowledge that NBC Sports, which telecasts the American Classics, has reserved a network slot for the Preakness on October 3.
Of course, The Stronach Group, which operates Pimlico, has yet to announce the rescheduled date for the Preakness, but just the whiff of a date at all stirs up an interesting debate surrounding this year’s Triple Crown.
That is, with the Preakness projected to run about midway between the rescheduled Kentucky Derby on September 5 and the Breeder’s Cup Classic on November 7, what’s that mean for the Triple Crown’s typical final leg, the Belmont Stakes—which has yet to indicate when it will run this year?
Should the sport just shelf the Triple Crown for 2020, or simply run it out of order? Will that mean an asterisk if a horse accomplishes the feat, especially if the Belmont runs at a shorter distance than its traditional mile-and-a-half, as has been suggested?
After all, one can argue that the Triple Crown has only been accomplished thirteen times in its history because of the five weeks separating the three legs.
Still, It would be a damn shame to deny this incredible 3yo division a shot at racing immortality, even if the merits of such an accomplishment have been skewed by something completely beyond anyone’s control.