What happens in (search of) Vegas: a handicapper’s quest for his first NHC berth
“Morning Breeze” | © Andrew Sgroi. All Rights Reserved
First Leg | An Up and Down Affair with Lady Luck
People love PowerBall®. And who can blame them?
When the jackpot gets otherworldly, a few dollars-investment could mean a life-changing payout. As in, you’ll spend a lifetime saying, “Keep the change.”
So naturally, during those times, they’re all in—whether it’s with co-workers, neighbors, loved ones, or every man for himself.
I’m not most people. The lottery has never interested me.
Well, that’s not exactly true. I recall a time as a young boy when my Dad—a bank executive—would, for fun, play the daily Play 3 or Play 4 lottery offered in our state. He had asked me once if I’d be interested in helping him track the daily sequences [mind you, this was early 1980s, before Excel®]. I enthusiastically agreed, and dutifully charted the daily numbers on a not-so-meticulously lined, looseleaf paper graph pinned to the back of the hollow, luan door to my bedroom.
We collaborated this way every night for, I believe, three months. And I recollect our efforts paying off a time or two for, you know, modest prizes. And then, like ping pong balls which don’t get sucked into the chute, our interest in this grand charting scheme settled at the bottom of our sometimes busy, yet also simpler, lives.
That’s the full extent of my interest in the lottery. Absolutely no skin in the game from my vantage but, instead, an opportunity to bring some statistical analysis to this quintessential game of chance.
Look at the past numbers.
Then predict.
I’ve been handicapping horse racing in earnest since 2014. I mean, I had placed win wagers on the Derby before that but, let’s be honest, that wasn’t handicapping. Those were lottery tickets, for the promise of a temporary windfall.
For me, the allure of handicapping hasn’t been the payoff, it’s been the process. Oh sure, converting that wager is exhilarating. But only because Lady Luck doesn’t pay for the date. You do.
And studying a racing form isn’t necessarily hard work. Rather it’s a deliberate exercise, much like assembling a puzzle. Anyone can try, we all have our own methods, and there are a lot of pieces to consider. But, if you know where to look, it should all come together.
Just like it should for the game’s tactile participants, whose disparate journeys are woven together for a common goal. From the breeder—with her dedication to bloodlines and form, to the owner—whose investment is more than just dollars and cents, but also a hunch steeped in the power of emotion. From the trainer—who carefully conditions each of his subjects, to the pilot—who takes each mount as if it could be his last. And among all of those primary players, countless others who fan their own dreams of prominence and success.
Yes, it’s these journeys which have attracted me to this game.
I’ve embarked on a journey of my own since endeavoring into this world of handicapping six years ago.
That is, each year—as much of the nation sets down for its winter sleep—the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) hosts handicappers from all over the country in Las Vegas, Nevada, for the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).
In order to participate in the tournament, a player must qualify for it by winning any one from scores of local tournaments sanctioned by on-site racetracks, off-track betting facilities, and horse racing handicapping websites.
And the prize money that the NHC affords its winners is real. This February, NHC2020 paid out nearly $3 million in awards. The winner took home $800K and, yes, multiple players have played in it several times, accumulating lifetime earnings which would easily pay for a new house. For those at the top of the lifetime earnings board, they’re rightly considered “professional handicappers.”
I’m not there…yet.
My journey thus far has been committed to earning my first berth to Vegas. Since Memorial Day weekend in 2016—when I took my first shot at this unique form of handicapping—I have played in more than 200 online contests. Many of them have been feeder tourneys to the qualifiers themselves, meaning your prize for finishing at the top of the leader board is a free entry to the qualifying tournament.
Still, plenty of other contests have been what I refer to as “my work tab” — that is, drills to keep my skills sharp. And my regimen has worked. Just this year, out of 57 contests to date, I’ve earned prize credits in 13 of them — good for a 23% win rate.
One tournament for which I’m especially proud—and frankly, keeps the dream burning within—was a free NHC contest held just last month. A total of 2,075 tour members, each limited to a single entry, took part in the 15-race throw down. Only the winner would earn his/her berth to next year’s championship but the top 10 percent, as consolation, would play in a second round of the tourney the following day—where five more would qualify.
On Day One, I managed to score in 8 of 15 races, or 53 percent, for a mythical payout of $109.70 (based on combined win & place payouts for correct selections). This performance—where, no doubt, Lady Luck was along for the ride—was enough to notch a 26th overall ranking, or the top 2 percent of entrants!
During the second round, I held my own, correctly handicapping 6 of 15 races for a ranking of 67 out of 208 (32nd percentile). A decent follow-up but, obviously, not good enough to punch my ticket to Sin City.
And that’s okay.
There will be other qualifying opportunities, just as there were before this close encounter.
And I will prevail.
Someday.
It’s all a numbers game.