My 20-dollar play on Memorial Day—War of Will and the Shoemaker Mile Showdown
Only one reaction is worthy of the 11-horse field in Monday’s featured race at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, CA…
Wow.
War of Will, with jockey Tyler Gaffalione, gallops out following his victory in the 144th Preakness Stakes, at Pimlico Race Course, on May 18, 2019 | © Andrew Sgroi. All Rights Reserved
Appropriately, that’s also the acronym for the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile’s most anticipated entrant — the 2019 Preakness Stakes champion, War of Will.
The colt returns from a multi-month layoff to debut in his four-year-old campaign, after finishing 9th in another 11-horse field at the same track during last year’s Breeder’s Cup Classic.
In that race—which was a quarter-mile longer than today’s distance—his regular jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, chose to play the role of carrot. With so much class in the field, that was probably not the best move. By the top of the stretch, WOW had long ceded the lead he built on the backstretch and he jogged out the final eighth-mile to finish nearly 20 lengths back of the winner, Vino Rosso.
For today’s trip, WOW gets Santa Anita’s leading jockey, Flavien Prat. But, despite his successes, Prat has never ridden WOW in the afternoon. It will be interesting to see how he chooses to unleash the colt’s clear abilities.
What also must be considered is that War of Will is returning to turf for the first time since the first four starts of his career, when he notched one second- and one third-place finish. WOW’s trainer, Mark Casse, has long been a believer in beginning a youngster’s career on the grass, so the fact that WOW isn’t recently familiar with the surface doesn’t mean his trainer is reaching here.
Overall, in 14 lifetime starts, War of Will has won 28 percent — and finished in the money 50 percent of the time (4-1-2). Anyone would take that.
And when he scored his Preakness last year, it was mastery. Gaffalione kept him behind Warrior’s Charge, the leader, for much of the race, enabling him to save ground before squeezing through an opening on the rail with less than a quarter-mile remaining.
A similar trip might get him the win today.
But I’ll be playing my money elsewhere.
Hall of Fame trainer Chad Brown has a pair of stout runners in the race who each should present a nice challenge.
Without Parole, a 5 y.o. son of Frankel, is coming back from a layoff which last saw him finish 11th in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational in January. Before that, however, he managed to place third across the same Santa Anita surface in the Breeder’s Cup Mile, with today’s jockey—Irad Ortiz—aboard.
Breaking from the eighth stall, Joel Rosario will pilot the French-bred Raging Bull, who returns from a more than 7-month layoff. What’s especially promising about this son of Dark Angel, though, is his record in graded stakes company (9—3-1-1). And of his last six starts—all Grade 1—he’s 50 percent ITM (1-1-1).
Raging Bull also has a 33 percent win rate (2 of 6) at a mile distance and a 41 percent win rate (5 of 12) on grass.
Another challenger I like is the five-year-old Irish bred horse, River Boyne. This Jeff Mullins-trained turf standout has also won 41 percent across the surface (and 38 percent at a mile distance), most recently in the Grade 1 Frank Kilroe Mile back on March 7. Jockey Abel Cedillo took him to victory in the start prior to that as well, besting a field of nine in the Grade 3 Thunder Road on February 8.
And during last year’s Shoemaker Mile, jockey Flavien Prat guided the then 4-year-old to a late charging second place finish.
In terms of race shape, I expect that Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith will quickly take the #4 Voodoo Song to the front, with the #10 Neptune’s Storm matching him early to his outside. River Boyne will stalk those leaders while War of Will will be content to settle in mid-pack, along the rail, on the backstretch.
At the 5/8 pole, River Boyne will be set to drive from the three path, picking off both Voodoo Song and Neptune’s Storm. WOW will wait until the stretch to put in his rail bid, but by then closing speed from the Chad Brown duo (Without Parole, Raging Bull) will prevail from the outside.
If that combination doesn’t finish 1-2, I still anticipate they’ll each figure somewhere in the top three.
My $20 G1 Shoemaker Mile Wager Strategy:
$5 WIN — (8) Raging Bull [$5]
$2 PLACE/SHOW — (1) Without Parole [$4]
$2 EXACTA BOX — (1) with (8) [$4]
$2 WIN/SHOW — (11) River Boyne [$4]
$0.50 TRIFECTA KEY — (8) with (1)/(11) with (1)/(3) Next Shares/(5) War of Will/(11) [$3]
“America without her soldiers would be like God without His angels.”
– Claudia Pemberton