Composing a winning ticket | The best plays in Saturday’s Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes
Looking at the field for Saturday’s Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, and I’m immediately reminded of 6/8 meter in music. That’s because six of the eight entries measure up to the challenge that this Grade 2, 9-furlong route presents.
It’s a challenging race for handicappers as well because there are so many possible arrangements of these equally talented horses. But if you’re an observant fan of the sport, finding the right combination is little more than listening to your gut.
Here’s how I’ve parsed the field.
(1) Fearless His lone graded stakes start and lone route at Saturday’s distance saw him finish 5th at the Fairgrounds in New Orleans back on March 21. Since then his jockey, John Velazquez, has coaxed two impressive closing finishes out of him, albeit in allowance fields which were chasing modest pace up front.
(2) Pirate’s Punch This son of Shanghai Bobby, like the race favorites, is no stranger to finishing in-the-money (14—4-2-4). And he has two wins and two shows in his four starts this year, with three different jocks steering him over 8.5-furlong distances. He’s quick to the lead and can maintain that speed across early fractions. What’s more, the extra 110 yards could be all he needs to pull a stunner under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith—who himself is only in town to pilot his favorite girl, the 2019 Older Dirt Female Champion Midnight Bisou in the preceding stakes race (the G2 Fleur de Lis).
(3) Alkhaatam This 5yo son of champion sire Tapit sits at 30-1 on the morning line. Rest assured he’ll be bet down some, winning last out on June 7 in a third-level allowance race where he rated the leader off an honest pace. That said, he raced in last year’s edition of the Foster and was through after three-quarters of a mile, ultimately finishing 11th. I haven’t seen much improvement in his nine starts since. You can safely look elsewhere.
(4) Multiplier With only three wins in 28 lifetime starts—and his last win more than two, heavily-raced years ago—you can toss him out too, right? Not so fast. If ever the “always the bridesmaid, never the bride” idiom should apply to a fleet equine, it would be Multiplier (his gender notwithstanding). This 6yo son of The Factor has always kept things interesting for his connections, often against stout company. He’s finished second or third a healthy 42% lifetime, and five times in 13 starts since 2019 (38 percent). Sure he’s had some clunkers in graded stakes races, but those were on the grass. He’s clearly not the best turf runner. But just look at his most recent, high-stakes dirt route—the G1 Santa Anita Handicap, at a mile and a quarter, back on March 7—when he missed the win by a neck to Combatant. He’ll even get back jockey Tyler Gaffalione for this ride as well so—like the bridesmaid who makes enough trips down the aisle—Saturday could be the day we all stand up and take notice of Multiplier finally overcoming the odds.
(5) Tom’s d’Etat He’s the even-money favorite and for good reason. A winner in his last three starts, including the G1 Clark Handicap at the same 9-furlong distance last November, there’s too much going for this 7yo son of Smart Strike who, amazingly, hasn’t been retired to stud yet. He’s been on top in 10 of 17 lifetime races (59% win rate), and hit the board three other times (76% ITM). Although he hasn’t raced in 78 days, don’t let that scare you. He won last out returning from a 134-day layoff! And although his work tab this month hasn’t been especially impressive, a horse of his caliber really just needs some maintenance from his drills. My lone concern is his jockey, Miguel Mena, who’s won just 9 of 72 mounts (12%) at Churchill so far this meet and has never piloted this stellar athlete. That may not matter. But it does for me.
(6) By My Standards By any standard, this 4yo colt is the real deal. He’s finished in the money 8 of 9 starts lifetime, with the outlier being last year’s Kentucky Derby. He’s 3-for-3 already this year, including a nearly two lengths win over Warrior’s Charge and 11 others last out in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap on May 2. He’s always been ridden by jockey Gabriel Saez, so Saez’s paltry Churchill spring meet win rate (3 for 32, 6%) shouldn’t scare off the betting public. He knows his mount. And as for morning workouts, By My Standards has been sharp this month. At 5-2 on the morning line, there’s little to keep him from occupying the top of many tickets.
(7) Silver Dust This one could be intriguing. A 6yo gelded son of Tapit, out of a Hard Spun mare, Silver Dust’s running line is chock full of impressive company. In fact, since his 5yo campaign began, the Kentucky-bred has raced in 11 consecutive stakes races, winning a trio of Grade 3s while notching four places and one show. He’s got a favorable morning line of 10-1, so if the money continues to go elsewhere, he’ll figure to be a nice value play.
(8) Owendale Sometimes you overlook a really good horse because the best of his competition seems leaps and bounds better. Do not let this be one of those times. No horse in this field is superior to Owendale. In 2019, he won against graded stakes company at Keeneland, nearly pulled off a closing victory in the Preakness, won both the Ohio Derby and the Oklahoma Derby, and came up short of Tom’s d’Etat in the aforementioned Clark Handicap. He’s even already won on debut this year at Churchill, when he closed valiantly in deep stretch to grab the $100,000 Blame Stakes. And he’s got his regular rider, Florent Geroux, aboard. You overlook Owendale at your own peril. That won’t be me. He’s my “Win and You’re In” choice to snag the automatic berth in the Breeder’s Cup Classic later this year in Lexington.
As for race shape, I expect Pirate’s Punch to break sharp from Post 2 to set a brisk pace. By My Standards will have little trouble getting out to rate the leader on his outside hip, with both holding this front-end form into the backstretch. Silver Dust’s jockey, Adam Beschizza, will be wise to let the top two lather up the speed for the field, settling in just behind them at the rail to save ground. Multiplier will sit outside of him in the three path, in perfect stalking position. Tom’s d’Etat will sit back of those two to round out the top flight of five.
As the field sets into the far turn, By My Standards will set down to take a narrow lead on Pirate’s Punch, but Mike Smith will commit the latter to duel as the pair turns for home. They’ll steer out from the 2-3 path, enabling Tyler Gaffalione to bring Multiplier up alongside Silver Dust for a bid just off the rail.
Tom’s d’Etat will never really get going in the far turn, forced outside in the stretch drive to try and pick up a minor award. But he’ll be passed easily on the standside by Owendale, whom jockey Florent Geroux will be content to nestle in at the far back of the field while a well-starched pace battle develops up front.
It will be a close finish but, this time in a big stakes showdown in Louisville, Owendale will prevail.
My G2 Stephen Foster Stakes Wager Strategy (Budget: $20)
$10 WIN: (8) Owendale ($10 wager)
$2 EXACTA BOX: (6) By My Standards, (8) Owendale ($4 wager)
$1 TRIFECTA: (8) Owendale w/ (2) Pirate’s Punch, (6) By My Standards w/ (2) Pirate’s Punch, (5) Tom’s d’Etat, (6) By My Standards, (7) Silver Dust ($6 wager)
Approximate Post Time: 5:50 PM EDT | Telecast: NBC Sports