Law in order—handicapping the field for Saturday’s long-awaited Run for the Roses
It took a global pandemic to postpone the Commonwealth of Kentucky’s annual spring rite for the first time since 1945 but, at long last, the 146th Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs will race—sans patrons—on Saturday in Louisville.
So what have we learned in Thoroughbred horse racing’s 3yo Division during the four-month layoff? For starters, Bob Baffert’s scintillating duo of Charlatan and Nadal won’t reach the starting gate because of varying degrees of injury. In fact, Nadal’s setback was severe enough to retire him from competitive racing. He’ll sadly never run again.
But we also learned that Baffert won’t be denied of his possible sixth Derby winner, as he’s deftly conditioned two more prospects who will get the start—Authentic and Thousand Words.
We’ve also discovered that odds-on favorite Tiz the Law is very much the real deal. Since the first Saturday in May, he’s raced twice in Grade 1 fields and absolutely dominated his foes.
Although there are some other really nice horses in this field beyond the champ-in-waiting, this is one of those years when it might have been best to limit the starting gate to 14 entries. Ironic as that is, for this is the year Churchill Downs debuts its 20-stall starting gate—eliminating the need for the Derby Day auxiliary gate that bettors have long grown accustomed to considering when handicapping the field.
The brand new 20-stall starting gate at Churchill Downs | Photo Courtesy: Donna Brothers NBC Sports
Speaking of handicapping the field, that’s what awaits...from first to last, here are my observations of the field and where I’ll wager my money…
(1) Finnick the Fierce (ML 50-1): UPDATE — SCRATCHED on Friday, September 4
[A Kentucky bred who is no stranger to crowded fields against graded stakes company. Finished third in the Arkansas Derby’s 2nd Division, just 4 ½ lengths back of the winner, Nadal (retired). He’s broke from Post 1 three times in his career, placing first (by DQ), third, and fourth. He’s the only entrant to finish ahead of Tiz the Law (2nd in G2 KyJC). And a familiar jockey, Martin Garcia (3: 1-0-2 as his rider), is assigned the mount. Outcome: With no discernible closing kick except on off-tracks, an outside stalk position won’t deliver his chance for a minor award.]
(2) Max Player (ML 30-1): This lightly raced 3yo has finished in the money in five lifetime starts (2-1-2). He’s notched consecutive Grade 1 third-place finishes against Tiz the Law, in the Belmont Stakes and last month’s Travers Stakes. Gets a new trainer-jockey tandem (Asmussen-Santana), which has earned an 18 percent win rate. He flashed an impressive closing kick—while sitting 5-wide in deep stretch—to win the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. Outcome: Expect him to be forwardly placed to set up a potential challenge with Tiz the Law in the stretch.
(3) Enforceable (ML 30-1): Son of Tapit has not lived up to his hefty price tag (purchased for $775,000 at Keeneland’s 2018 September Yearling Sale), winning just two of 10 lifetime starts. The Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes is one of his wins, however, where he saved his run by settling far back from moderate early fractions before using a well-steered outside trip from jockey Julien Leparoux to close impressively. Leparoux tried to replicate that approach in the colt’s next two graded stakes runs, with a 2nd and 5th place finish to show for it. Outcome: Enforceable will miss Leparoux in this race (who gets the mount in the adjacent stall), and merely picks off fading horses to finish 7th or 8th.
(4) Storm the Court (ML 50-1): With his crowning achievement winning last year’s Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at final odds of nearly 46-1, now this colt returns to his more familiar dirt surface following a second place finish in the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap last month at Del Mar. Still, the turf might be where he belongs moving forward, as he followed up his stunning BC win with just two 3rd-place finishes in four starts on the dirt (one of them the Grade 3 Ohio Derby). Outcome: He tries to get to the early lead, which he has shown he can hold, but languishes late from the added distance.
(5) Major Fed (ML 50-1): Bred and owned by Lloyd Madison Farms, just making this field alone is notable for the one-time winner (out of 6 lifetime starts). He’s finished 2nd twice in graded stakes competition, yes, but he’s clearly over-matched here. Outcome: With no early speed to dictate pace, he’s just running around an oval.
(6) King Guillermo (ML 20-1) UPDATE — SCRATCHED on Thursday, September 3
[This son of Uncle Mo is also lightly raced (5 lifetime starts) but he’s responded well to a measured approach with his conditioning. He broke his maiden in his second start—first on the grass—by taking the 11-horse field gate-to-wire. He then took third across the same surface to close his 2yo campaign. In his limited running this year, he’s won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and finished 2nd in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby | Division 2, three lengths back of the now-injured Nadal. Jockey Samy Camacho will continue to pilot his 3yo campaign and he’ll look to get him up front off the break. The four-month layoff since his last start is less of a concern considering he notched two bullet drills during his August work tab. Outcome: The king isn’t quite ready to rule this 3yo division but he’ll finish in the money, showing he’s ready to dominate as a four-year-old.]
(7) Money Moves (ML 30-1): Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher’s only entrant in this American Classic looks like a major long-shot on paper, when you consider the son of Candy Ride will test graded stakes competition for the first time. But he boasts two wins (one on debut) and a place finish in three lifetime starts, with that second win—an allowance miler—coming as he closely rated the leader during solid early fractions before setting down a closing kick which cleared the field. Then following a four-month layoff, he added distance and only lost by a neck in a second-level allowance race at Saratoga. Pletcher tabs HOF jockey Javier Castellano—who has never won the Derby—as his rider and, coming off a similar layoff which produced his “take notice” score, this is a dark horse you should not overlook. Outcome: If he stays near the top flight, then watch for Castellano to make an historic move for the money late.
(8) South Bend (ML 50-1): He’s one of a few horses in the field to race at the mile and a quarter distance and he did it last out in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. But here’s the notable takeaway: he was crushed by Tiz the Law, losing by nearly ten lengths despite improving his position to eventually finish 4th (out of 7 runners). He gets his fifth different jockey already this year with Tyler Gaffalione set to ride and he’ll need a blistering pace to help unleash his closing stride. That won’t happen. Outcome: Trainer Bill Mott “won” last year’s Derby by way of a head-scratching DQ. Fittingly, South Bend’s finish will appear to be in neighboring Indiana.
(9) Mr. Big News (ML 50-1): Allied Racing Stable LLC sends another prospect to the Derby this year, after 2019 Louisiana Derby winner By My Standards finished 11th in the 145th edition. Although this colt has only won two of 7 lifetime starts—one of which was his maiden victory, by a nose—he has measurably stretched out across his career, with no cutbacks or surface switches. So the distance shouldn’t be a problem. The company, however, likely will be. He’s scuffled in his previous two graded stakes starts and his lone stakes score to date (the $200,000 Oaklawn Stakes back on April 11) was on a wet track. Still another curious angle to ponder is trainer Bret Calhoun’s decision to pace his last two workouts on grass. Outcome: It would indeed be big news if Mr. Big News played a factor in this one, so toss him.
(10) Thousand Words (ML 15-1): A son of Pioneer of the Nile—who sired 2015 Triple Crown and Breeder’s Cup Classic Champion American Pharoah—Thousand Words returns to action four weeks since his gate-to-wire win in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. He’s one of two runners here for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and he should comfortably handle both the added distance and the company. Jockey Florent Geroux takes the mount for this four-time winner in 7 starts, and you can expect him to go off at a fair price. Outcome: If a picture is worth a thousand words, then you can certainly picture Thousand Words being Baffert’s better play in here. He should figure somewhere in your exotic tickets.
(11) Necker Island (ML 50-1): This son of Hard Spun has finished in the money just twice in 7 starts this year (two show finishes) and hasn’t raced above a Grade 3 in stakes competition (4: 0-0-1). Although he was a distant third in his last start (the Ellis Park Derby on August 9), the company to whom he lost both made this field (although Art Collector has since scratched due to a minor foot injury). Outcome: This is a major step up in class for him. He’ll break at the back of the pack and stay there.
(12) Sole Volante (ML 30-1): Before his most recent start, Sole Volante had never finished out of the money in 6 lifetime starts. Then he took his first run at a Grade 1 (the Belmont Stakes on June 20) and Tiz the Law. A 6th place finish and nearly 16 lengths from the eventual winner, it was a trip to forget. His connections are hoping that was just a one-off. Outcome: In his four wins to date, he’s come from well off the pace at shorter distances. He seems best fit for a mile. Too much distance and not enough early speed for him to chase in here.
(13) Attachment Rate (ML 50-1): He’s kept great company in recent starts, finishing second to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby, second to Dr. Post in a stakes race at Gulfstream in April, and third behind Mischevious Alex in the Grade 3 Gotham in March. But when a one-time winner is tasked with his first Grade 1 in the Kentucky Derby, that’s tough sledding. Outcome: Hard to attach him to your ticket, except as one of several options well underneath.
(14) Winning Impression (ML 50-1): The only winning impression West Point Thoroughbred’s entry has made in his career was a maiden score on a sloppy track last December in New Orleans. Sure, he used another off-track to ride to victory in a first-level allowance race at Oaklawn in April—before he was DQ’d to 5th for a stretch drive infraction. So there’s really not much to see from this gray gelding, despite a 4th place finish in the Arkansas Derby’s 1st Division—which was ultimately elevated to third place. He followed that up with a disastrous 7th place finish in the Grade 3 Indiana Derby. Outcome: With all due respect, he doesn’t belong in the Derby.
(15) Ny Traffic (ML 20-1): This colt has been the bridesmaid (2nd place) in his last three starts—all graded stakes—and he hasn’t missed the win by much in any of them. His jockey Paco Lopez has guided the past two runner-up finishes, so he at least knows the boy’s tendencies and where he should place him. Outcome: He’ll want a part of the early lead and should get it. He’ll also probably be a nice overlay so, despite his inability to finish, he should very much be a part of a larger ticket.
(16) Honor A.P. (ML 5-1): When HOF jockey Mike Smith takes his mount on this son of Honor Code Saturday, one thing should be on his mind. That is, Honor A.P. is due. His five lifetime starts to date have played out to form: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd. Sometimes the numbers just speak to you. And you don’t need to be an AP Honors student in statistics to see the trend here. Beyond that, his two most recent runner-up finishes were to Authentic (see below) in the Grade 2 San Felipe in March and the aforementioned Thousand Words in the Shared Belief. Oh, and between the two, he managed to best Authentic in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Outcome: Honor A.P. can win this on merit. And the trend indicates he should. The question remains…
(17) Tiz the Law (ML 3-5): He’s the absolute heavy favorite. He can sit several wide for the entire trip and still save his run for the deep stretch. He’s done it multiple times. That’s not easy. So how do you beat him? Either bottle him up—as Silver Prospector and others did on an off-track at Churchill last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club—or let him sit on the lead—which he’s never been forced to do. Considering the speed to his immediate right and near-left, he probably won’t be called into that latter, unfamiliar scenario. Outcome: Tiz the Law prevails, and continues this almost certain run at history during this most uncertain time in history.
(18) Authentic (ML 8-1): It’s hard to believe that Authentic was once considered the 1B colt in Bob Baffert’s well-stocked 3yo barn this year. But with the likes of Charlatan and Nadal—who have since been removed from the Derby trail due to injuries—Authentic was hiding in plain sight while he dominated the California circuit since his win on debut late in his 2yo campaign. Authentic is all speed and, make no mistake, he wants to get out front. More impressive is that he can effortlessly rate that lead, as he has shown thrice in five starts already. If he can get an assist from Ny Traffic—to pinch Tiz the Law’s angle in at the break—he’s got enough motor to notch his fourth gate-to-wire score of the year. Outcome: His speed merely serves as the carrot for a worthy champion, and opens up the vertical wagers to some large payouts.
My Kentucky Derby Wager Strategy (Budget: $52)
$1 Exacta Key Box (EXKBX) — (17) Tiz the Law w/ (7) Money Moves, (10) Thousand Words, (15) Ny Traffic, (16) Honor A.P. ($8 wager)
$.50 Trifecta Key — (17) w/ (7), (10), (15), (16) ($8 wager)
$.10 Superfecta Key — (17) w/ (2) Max Player, (7), (10), (13) Attachment Rate, (15), (16), (18) Authentic ($21 wager)
$5 Win-Place-Show (WPS) — (7) Money Moves ($15 wager)